Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
130 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

.DISCUSSION...
MCS OVR ERN HALF OF IA CONTS TO MOV SEWD TWRD NRN PTN OF CWA EARLY
THIS MRNG...ALTHOUGH IT APRS TO BE LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WKNG.  THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONT
THRU THE MRNG AS CONVECTION MOVS FURTHER S INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
LESS LOW-MID LVL SHEAR AND A STGR CAP...MORE CIN ALBEIT PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...CAPE ACRS NRN MO.  SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALSO BGN TO WKN
DCRSG AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE CNVG...THETA E ADVCTN AND WAA ON
NOSE OF LLJ.  MORE INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVR SWRN S CNTRL WI
NR NOSE OF LLJ IN REGION OF STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG AND THETE E
ADVCTN.  SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCT WKNG CONVECTION OVR THE NRN PTN OF
THE CWA THIS MRNG ALTHOUGH IT APRS THE STGR CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA.  ALL MDLS TOO FAR S WITH QPF THIS MRNG...ETA
APRS MOST REASONABLE BTWN 06-12Z.  SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION DVLPG ALNG AND S OF I-70 THIS AFTN ALNG WKNG CDFNT AND
OUTFLOW BNDRY FM MRNG CONVECTION AHD OF CDFNT.  MDLS SHOWING PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTN...BUT WITH ETA MDL DEPICTG WKNG LOW LVL
CNVG ALNG CDFNT THIS AFTN MAY HAVE TROUBLE BRKG CAP ESPECIALLY OVR
THE WRN AND SWRN PTN OF THE CWA.  PREFER THE SLWR SWD MOVEMENT OF
CDFNT PER THE ETA AND NGM MDLS OVR THE FASTER AVN...AND WILL LIKELY
MENTION A LOW POP OVR THE SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA THIS EVNG.
QUIET WX LT TGT THRU WED NGT WITH RELATIVELY WK SFC HI MOVG THRU
REGION AND MID-UPR LVL RDG OVR THE PLAINS EXTDG E INTO CWA.  MAY
MENTION A LOW POP OVR THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA ON THU AS MDLS
DEPICT SHRTWV TROF MOVG SEWD THRU CWA WITH LOW LVL WAA CNTRD OVR
NWRN MO.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.

GKS

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK HILL MISSOURI NORTHEAST TO ST. JAMES
ILLINOIS.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE
CUBA...FARMINGTON...ELLINGTON...BELLEVILLE...SPARTA AND SALEM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

GKS