Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PST FRI OCT 31 2003

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
STEADY RAIN HAVING REACHED SBA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
FROM VENTURA COUNTY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LIKELY MAKING THINGS
DAMP FOR THE TRICK OR TREATERS THIS EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO NWRN SLO COUNTY SO RAIN THERE WILL BECOME
MORE SHOWERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT AS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST TODAY, GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. WEVE ALSO
HAD SNOW AS LOW AS 4000 FEET IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS. PROBABLY NOT TOO
MUCH CHANGE IN THAT SNOW LEVEL THROUGH SAT.

MESO ETA STILL SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LINGERING INTO SAT
EVENING, THOUGH THE 18Z RUN WASNT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE VERTICAL
MOSTION FIELDS. I STILL THINK THERES ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO
WARRANT SOME SHOWER CHANCE THROUGH SAT EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

GIVEN THE RAINFALL RATES WEVE SEEN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY,
THERE IS CERTAINLY CONCERN FOR MUDSLIDES IN THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A DRY DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE GFS SHOWED THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING MUCH FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER IT
DID INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF IT. CANT SAY IM TOO IMPRESSED WITH IT SO FAR, BUT ITS GOOD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...SO CAL REMAINS IN A CYCLONIC FLOW PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EARLY
TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY, BUT ITS REALLY DIFFICULT TO BE TOO
PRECISE THIS FAR OUT. BUT SINCE NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA, IM OPTING TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY RATHER
THAN PAINTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEXT WEEKS FORECAST AS IT GETS CLOSER. IN ANY CASE,
THE COOL, CLOUDY, BREEZY TREND WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).

&&

WOFFORD

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-010200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST FRI OCT 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAYS ONE THROUGH TWO... TODAY AND SATURDAY

A WINTER LIKE STORM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND SNOW
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE COLD AIR TO DROP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AT HIGHER EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ALONG WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...DENSE FOG AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES. THE US
FOREST SERVICE ADVISES THAT AS LITTLE AS 0.10 INCHES IN AN HOUR
COULD PRODUCE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. IF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOP...APPROPRIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED. HOWEVER...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS
THAN A HALF AN INCH. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HOWEVER... SOME
SOUTH FACING SLOPES COULD SEE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DANIELSON