Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

PUBLIC DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES...

MAIN WX PROBLEM NXT 6 HRS OR SO WILL BE CHASING MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS
AROUND. MAIN BAND OF STMS HAVE FORMED ON OLD CONVERGENCE LINE LEFT
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STMS...HOWEVER...TRAINING ECHOES S OF I-80 MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  OVERALL...WILL GENLY GO WITH UNQUALIFOED
MENTION OF SCT TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN CLRG OVERNIGHT.
ONE VORT MAX IS NOW MOVG INTO WRN LWR MI.  ANOTHER...WEAKER
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED TO S OF LSE WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSD WITH THIS FEATURE NOW MOVG INTO SWRN WI.
AM LOOKING FOR THESE FEATURES TO BE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONTD TSTM DVLPMT
INTO THIS EVENING.  INSTABILITY ACROSS FA INTO THIS EVENING WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL.

OVERNIGHT...STMS EXPECTED TO DMNISH A FEW HRS AFT SS...THEN DRYING
MOVES IN AS HI PRES RDG NOW OVER WRN DAKS BUILDS TWD MID MS VLY.
THIS IS TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH LGT FLOW ACRS AREA THRU
TUES.  BY WED-THUR...SLY TO SWLY FLO TO INCRS AND USHER IN
WARMER...MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPS/HUMIDITY FOR LATTER HALF OF WEEK.
AT PRESENT...NEXT WX SYS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDWEEK.  MDLS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING HOT DOME OVER HI PLAINS BY MID
WEEK WITH A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING THRU SRN CAN.  COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FCST TO MOVE THRU TWD END OF WEEK SO WILL KEEP TSTM CHC IN
FOR FOURTH.

.CHI...NONE

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ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019-020>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-292130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS WELL AS BETTER INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND WESTERN INDIANA.
PARAMETERS ARE FOCUSING ON LOWER MICHIGAN AND PERHAPS NORTHERN
INDIANA AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS FOR SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF LATE NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVIATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

           NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE

    HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)
OR  HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

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