Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

PUBLIC DISCUSSION AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS:

MAIN PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS WITH TSTM FCST.  SPC HAS LOWERED REGION
INTO SLIGHT RISK AS LO LEVEL FEATURES ARE AS YET POORLY DEFINED. SFC
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO LOER 70S BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS
QUITE NEBULOUS ACROSS MOST OF MIDWEST.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO RELATIVE STABILIZATION COMPARED TO AREAS TO OUR W AND
S WHERE LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE NOW RUNNING AOB -10.  BASED ON
THIS...BELIEVE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED TO GENERATE
CONVECTION.  VIGOROUS, DIGGING S/W TROF NOW ROTG SSEWD ACROSS WRN
ONTARIO WITH VORT TAIL ARCING SWWD INTO ND ATTM BASED ON AFTN SATLT
LOOPS.  EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NXT FEW HRS
WELL TO OUR NW WITH THESE STORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES OVERNIGHT
DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING IN FCST BUT WILL MENTION THIS AS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOS AND ALL MODELS CONCUR IN BRINGING OMEGA MAX
ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT.  SOME PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  REMAINDER OF FCST CHANGED LTL FROM GUID WITH ETA AND GFS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH OF COLD AVDECTION THRU ERLY
PART OF UPCOMING WEEK.   WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS AT LEAST THRU
MONDAY DUE TO SHARP CYCLONINC TURNING IN MID/UPR LVL FLOW AND ASSD
COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUES NIGHT AS H5 TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND SFC HI PRES BUILDS SEWD INTO FA.

.CHI...NONE
MERZLOCK

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