Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZONES

SHORT TERM...UNTIL 04/12Z...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TO REMAIN MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 03/12Z...THEN MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY IN AN ARC TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...CONTINUING TO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS VERY DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
PATTERN...SO PERSISTENCE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH EVERY RIPPLE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AOB NORMALS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...AFTER 04/12Z...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST.  PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MODELS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD UPPER AS LOW PULLS OUT GRADUALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, TO PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION THREAT. AFTER
THAT RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD FOR A DRY SEASONABLE PERIOD.
MODELS NOW INDICATING AN IMPULSE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND TUESDAY TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PLAINS.  SEE NO
MENTIONABLE PRECIP THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY THIS FAR EAST AS PATTERN
SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD

.CHI...NONE

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

TAF SITES TEMPORARILY BETWEEN CONVECTION AS SFC BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LIGHTING UP WELL SOUTH...AND
INSTABILITY POPCORN TSRA ARE FIRING OVER WISCONSIN. EXPECT THIS
LIGHTER PRECIP TO WORK DOWN TO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIE OFF DIURNALLY. WITH MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THINK THE CHANCES OF OVERNIHT
CONVECTION ARE SMALL. SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN LIKELY TONIGHT AS GROUND
REMAINS VERY MOIST.

WEST WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET...THEN A SLIGHT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT SUNDAY AS SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN DIFFUSE.

JHV

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019-020>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019
-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
600 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
AS OF NOW THOSE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

           NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE

    HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LOT (LOWER CASE)
OR  HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

RLB