Tornado Warning 6, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WFUS53 KLMK 092054 CCA
TORLMK
INC025-061-092145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
454 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
  HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT(445 PM EST)

* AT 351 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PILOT
  KNOB...OR ABOUT 34 MILES WEST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
  MPH.

* THE TORNADIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
  MILLTOWN AROUND 500 PM EDT
  WHITE CLOUD...FRENCHTOWN...DEPAUW AROUND 505 PM EDT
  RAMSEY AROUND 510 PM EDT
  CORYDON...NEW SALISBURY AROUND 515 PM EDT
  CRANDALL...BYRNEVILLE AROUND 520 PM EDT
  NEW MIDDLETOWN AROUND 525 PM EDT

TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY

LAT...LON 3813 8598 3820 8645 3837 8640 3835 8605
          3825 8596 3818 8596 3817 8592 3813 8593

$$

SMALLCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE MUGGY AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE ON THE NORTHERN AXIS
OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A MENTION OF STORMS
IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROPAGATES TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WE STILL EXPECT
TO SEE A COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOST IMPRESSIVE JUST
TO THE NORTH EAST OF THE CFA BUT WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CFA OVERNIGHT. BOWING
SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUT AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AS ME MOVE
INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE WARM SATURDAY AND WE WILL GO WITH THE
LOWER FWC GUIDANCE VALUES BUT WE DO LIKE THE COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED NOTES...
GENERAL MID-LEVEL TROFINESS OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS
LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS ACROSS LMK FA SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MAY
CLIMATOLOGIES FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. PER 6/12Z GFS RUNS, LATE
WED INTO THU A SIG 500MB WAVE DROPS SEWD INTO FA, GENERATING SCT
PCPN POLEWARD OF SFC LOW. HWVR, THERE IS QUITE THE DISCREPANCY IN
HOW THE GFS HANDLES THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN,
WHICH TAKES MOST OF THE ENERGY NOW OVER GULF OF ALASKA AND DROPS
THAT INTO A STG EWD PROPAGATING WAVE OVER SWRN CONUS BY 12Z/WED.
THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER WAVE DROPPING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE SERIES ALSO INDICATES A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MEANS ARE PERHAPS LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
ECMWF SOLN. OVERALL WILL JUST GO WITH A LOW CHC OF -TSRA WED AND
THU. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS CHCS GIVEN FCST RAOBS FROM 12Z GFS, BUT
GIVEN TIME OF YEAR KEPT CHC TS IN FCST.

.LMK...NONE.

XXV/XVI

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A VERY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAINS OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER
INDIANA AND OHIO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE
BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ALSO, DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
ANY STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY INTENSE RAINFALLS, ALONG WITH DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS POSSIBLE. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA.

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS,
AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE. SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO NETWORKS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SMALLCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
410 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    CAMPBELLSBURG             KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   HENRY                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

RES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
421 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    BECKS MILL                IN   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

RES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0420 PM    CHARLESTOWN               IN   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   CLARK                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

RES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0420 PM    CHARLESTOWN               IN   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   CLARK                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0410 PM    CHARLESTOWN               IN   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   CLARK                          FUNNEL CLOUD ALSO REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC.

0418 PM    CARDINAL HARBOR           KY   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   OLDHAM                         REPORTED BY LOCAL MEDIA
                                          METEOROLOGIST.

RES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
441 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    WICKLIFFE                 IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/09/03   CRAWFORD                       TREES DOWN WEST OF
                                          WICKLIFFE. REPORTED BY
                                          SPOTTER.

RES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
453 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    ENGLISH                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/09/03   CRAWFORD                       MEDIUM SIZED TREE LIMBS
                                          DOWN.

RES