Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
408 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

BUSY NIGHT WITH ONGOING WX, SO WILL ISSUE THE CONDENSED AFD TODAY.
OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...BASICALLY THE AREA REMAINS
IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW PERSISTS.

CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING INTO THE MORNING AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NWD. UPSTREAM SQUALL LINES IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR, SO STG TO SVR
STORM POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO MORNING HOURS PER SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT GRADIENT WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AFTER 15Z.
850MB WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING NOCTURNAL LLJ AXIS MAY MIX
DOWN, LEADING TO GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS ONCE MIXING COMMENCES, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL OVER ERN PARTS OF THE FA.

PER 0Z ETA, ERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT THEN MOVES TO ABOUT I-65 BY AROUND
18Z. EVEN WITH POTENTIAL MID-DAY BKN LOW CLOUDS AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE, WITH 3KM CAPES NEARING 150 J/KJ (VERY HIGH) EVEN FROM GFS.
OVERALL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
THIS DRY SLOT EDGE AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER TX
PANHANDLE MOVES NEAR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER
SOUTHWEST OF FA ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, MORE INTO THE SPC
MODERATE RISK AREA. IF INSTABILITY IS AS EXTREME AS ETA FCSTS,
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS DEEP LAYER 6KM SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR/BOW
SYSTEM TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT DROPS ESEWD.
FAIRLY HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SPC HAS US
IN 35% RISK OF SEVERE WINDS AND HATCHED AREA FOR 2 HAIL.

BOTH ETA/GFS FCST SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ALONG NOSE
OF LATE NIGHT LLJ ACROSS MID-SOUTH, TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN KY
BY 12Z/TUE. WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT POPS IN CHC CATEGORIES FOR NOW,
HIGHEST IN SRN KY, GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

OTHER THING OF SOME NOTE THROUGH 60HRS IS THAT BOTH GFS/ETA FCST
YET ANOTHER NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA. SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FA, AS RATHER LARGE
BLOB OF QPF INDICATED OVER TN. GFS LOOKS TO BE FORECASTING QPF MAX
TOO FAR NORTH INTO COOL AIR AS PER USUAL. OVERALL WILL ADD CHC POPS
FOR TUE NIGHT ALL AREAS OF THE FA. IF WE KEEP GETTING THESE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER US, WIDER SPREAD FLOODING AND HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. THATS A WRAP.

.LMK...NONE.

XXV

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH AND THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL HELP PULL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 600 AM EDT. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO,
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET, AND FROM YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR OVERNIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED AGAIN FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

JMB