Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

AT MID AFTERNOON AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
ONE CELL HAS BEEN SEVERE...PUTTING OUT LARGE HAIL. REST HAVE BEEN
PRIMARILY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THAT IS STILL OUT OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE ETA FOR DAY 1 AND MORE TOWARD THE GFS FOR DAYS
2 AND 3.

MAIN PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS EVENING AND THEN ENDING BRIEFLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TIMING THE SHOWERS AND AMOUNT OF RAIN.
ALSO THE WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN PART OF
FA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING OVER
REST OF FA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS
WARM AIR RIDES UP OVER THE WARM FRONT. AS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...GETTING A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE...THEN WARMING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING NIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY.

AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL END
TEMPORARILY DURING THE MID PART OF THE DAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR AND
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE RAPIDLY WILL
INTO THE 70S AND TO NEAR 80 IN PLACES. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND WILL ADD GUSTS TO FORECAST.  THEN AS AFTERNOON HEATING TAKES
EFFECT AND CAP BREAKS...EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SPC HAS MODERATE RISK OVER PARTS OF FA AND WILL MENTION
STRONG STORMS.

WITH FRONT IN VICINITY AND RIPPLES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...
WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
225 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUDERSTORMS EXISTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.

REITMEYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
505 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0502 PM    BEAVER DAM                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   OHIO                           REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER. ALSO...MARBLE SIZE
                                          HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
                                          HARTFORD AND ROCKPORT.

MRC