Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

SHORT TERM:

IN IMMEDIATE TERM...LINE OF TSTMS ALG OUTFLOW BNDRY CURRENTLY ACRS
WRN THIRD OF KY WL CONTINUE EWD OVR FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EVNG AS LINE INTERACTS WITH UNSTBL AIRMASS AHD OF LINE. SFC BASED LI
VALUES -5 TO -8 WL CONT TO SUPPORT NEW DVLPMT ALG LINE. SHEAR VALUES
MARGINAL SO SVR EVTS SHLD BE MOSTLY OF PULSE VARIETY WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LCL WIND DAMAGE IN STRONGEST CELLS.

AFT LINE PASSES...WEATHER WL QUIET DOWN LATER THIS EVNG. HWVR...
ETA/GFS INDICATE PSBL DVLPMT OF ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS OVR MID MS VLY
LATER WHICH COULD SWEEP INTO OH VLY OVRNGT AND/OR FRIDAY MRNG. SFC
OBS SHOW THAT AIRMASS IS RECOVERING OVR MO IN WAKE OF THIS INITIAL
AREA OF TSTMS AS SFC BASED LI VALUES SHOW GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION.
ETA SEEMS TO PICK UP ON THIS AIRMASS RECOVERY AND USES THIS RENEWED
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE NEW CNVCTN CLOSER TO SYNOPTIC FNT. THUS WL
MAINTAIN CHC OF TSTMS OVRNGT AND FRIDAY MRNG OVR ALL OF FCST
AREA...BUT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN BEST LOCATION AND CVRG OF ANY NEW
CNVCTN AT THIS TIME UNTIL NEW CELLS BEGIN FIRING W OF AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AFTN...BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER TO NW SO ANY DIURNAL TSTMS
SHLD BE CONFINED TO SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA ALG ANY
EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRIES...ALTHO MODELS HINT THAT SYNOPTIC BNDRY
MAY STILL LAG BACK OVR CNTRL KY.

DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HWVR...EXPECT LOW CLDS FRIDAY
NGT AND AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY WITHIN NLY BNDRY LYR FLOW. THUS HI
TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHLD HOLD IN 60S IN MOST AREAS. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
IMPINGING ON AREA LATE SUNDAY AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY):

WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WRN PART OF FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVERSPREADING AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MRNG. WILL RAISE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. AFTER WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER AREA
MONDAY AFTN AND TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT UNDER STG UPR LVL JET. COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY AND
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

.LMK...NONE.
FUNK/SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
505 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, COMBINED WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE, HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR GOLFBALLS IS
POSSIBLE SHOULD SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE, THEN
HIGH THUNDERSTORM WINDS WOULD ALSO BE A THREAT. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AT THIS POINT, LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

IN ADDITION, DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
(150-200% OF NORMAL), SHOULD THESE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO BANDS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. AS ALWAYS,
DEADLY LIGHTNING IS A REAL THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, LOCAL MEDIA, OR WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, WHERE
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FRIDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMALLCOMB