Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT MON APR 28 2003

.SHORT TERM:

DECENT SHORT WAVE (S/W) IN ERN MO THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
SRN IL ERY THIS EVNG...THEN TO CNTRL KY IN THE LATE EVNG...BEFORE
SHFTG INTO WV AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.  TONGUE OF INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E RDG AXIS TO INTERCEPT ENERGY PTN TNGT...LEADING TO SCT OR
NUMEROUS SHWRS & TSTMS. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTH
AND SCT IN THE SOUTH. INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLDS TNGT WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD LEVEL.

SUBSIDENCE PTN IN THE WAKE OF EXITING S/W SHUD PUT A MIN ON ANY RAIN
CHCS DURING THE MRNG HOURS TUE.  HOWEVER WITH CDFNT STALLING IN NRN
KY...COUPLED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOW BNDRYS...WE WOULD
EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO FIRE DURING THE AFTN. PLAN ON HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTH (40 PCT)...NEAR FNT.

WEAK RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR SAID FRONTAL BNDRY IN OUR
NRN FA...WILL HELP KEEP CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS GOING ALL NIGHT. ACRS THE
SOUTH WE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CYCLE TO END PCPN LATE TUE EVNG.

WARMFNT TO JUMP INTO THE UPR OHIO VLY ON WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO
DVLPG LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...ETA HINTS AT A WEAK
BNDRY IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WED...AS A RESULT PLAN TO KEEP CHC
TSTMS GOING WED INTO WEDNESDAY EVNG OVR ENTIRE FA.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF OUR FA WILL BE SAFELY TUCKED IN THE WARM SECTOR
ON THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY DURING THE DAY.

HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TUE AND WED...
HOWEVER ON THU GUIDE APPEARS TO BE LACKING SOMEWHAT ON MAX TEMPS...
CONSIDERING DECENT SLY FLOW AND LACK OF ORGANIZED PCPN. AS A RESULT
WILL BOOST ALL TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80F.

LONG TERM ... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:

FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THEN DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WITH ATMOSPHERE
DRYING OUT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
MODIFIED EXTENDED GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

.LMK...NONE.

STUREY/MBS

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-290930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WEST OF LOUISVILLE SHORTLY AFTER 5 PM EDT. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
EVENING. ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY TUESDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL...AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SCHOLZ