Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

.THE HERE AND NOW...
TODAY KIND OF HAS THAT MUGGY THUNDERSTORM TYPE FEEL TO IT, AND SURE
ENOUGH, A LINE OF BKN TSRA DEVELOPING OVER SWRN IND ATTM ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SCT AREA OVER WRN KY/WRN TN. PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER
AHEAD OF STG 500MB WAVE FOR A BKN AREA OF TS TO AFFECT THE LMK FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE HOURS. AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH 3KM
CAPE AND SFC-6KM SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM
WRN TN NWD INTO SWRN IND. PER 15Z RUC PW/OMEGA FIELDS, TS SHOULD
COALESCE INTO LINEAR ELEMENTS AND TRANSLATE E/SEWD THRU FA OVER NEXT
6-9 HOURS. WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OUT OF THESE INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPING
ON CONVECTIVE ROLLS, COLOCATED WITH LCLS AOB 1KM AND 0-1KM
ENVIRONMENTAL SRH AOA 150.

.REST OF SHORT TERM...
PER 12Z ETA, MID-LEVEL WAVE KICKS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OUT
OF FA AFTER 5Z/MON, WITH A SOLID INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE BELOW
800MB A GOOD PART OF MON, WHERE ILL GO WITH A 70% SKY COVER. WEAK
LIFT ASSOC SECONDARY 500MB TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU FA MON NIGHT,
COUPLED WITH A REGIONAL INCR IN PW VALUES AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE
(GFS FCSTS 44 J/KG AT 2AM TUE FOR KSDF), COULD YIELD SOME -SHRA OVER
NRN PARTS OF LMK FA. HWVR FORCING WOULD HAVE TO PENETRATE RATHER STG
INVERSION, LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL, BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHC -SHRA AS
IN CURRENT FCST FOR MON NIGHT. INVERSION HOLDS IN GFS/ETA FCST RAOB
DATA HINTING THAT SKIES MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR, ESP ACROSS NRN KY/SRN
IND ON TUE. PER GFS, LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT TUE NIGHT AND WITH SFC HIGH
OVER FA, COULD BE A FROSTY START TO WED? FORECASTING SUNSHINE WED AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO REGION.

.EXTENDED PORTION...
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY KEEPING THINGS QUIET WEATHERWISE. HOWEVER BY LATE THURSDAY
STRONG 500 MB LOW PRES EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN TN
VALLEY. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL KY THU
NIGHT WITH WAA PATTERN RAINS SPREADING INTO SRN KY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE NRN KY AND SRN IN. WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THU AFTN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH...THEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GIVEN ABUNDANT AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY
SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT TEMPS.

.LMK...NONE.

CCS/JMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE AFFLICTED THE BISTATE DURING THE EVENING.
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOUISVILLE AREA...AND ROLL THROUGH BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKFORT...LEXINGTON...AND COLUMBIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE
THUNDERSTORM LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
722 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0715 PM    TELL CITY                 IN   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   PERRY

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
738 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    HUNTINGBURG               IN   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
04/20/03   DUBOIS

0700 PM    SALEM                     IN   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   WASHINGTON

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
748 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0724 PM    SCOTTSBURG                IN   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   SCOTT

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
809 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0754 PM    CONCORDIA                 KY   1.50 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   MEADE

0805 PM    VALLEY CITY               IN   .88 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   HARRISON

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
933 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0822 PM    CLOVERPORT                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   BRECKINRIDGE

0835 PM    SHIVELY                   KY   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   JEFFERSON

0847 PM    EKRON                     KY   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   MEADE

0815 PM    CLOVERPORT                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   BRECKINRIDGE

RL

INZ089>092-KYZ023>036-038>040-045>047-053-054-061>065-070>074-210330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
936 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

...STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY, INCLUDING LOUISVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, JEFFERSONVILLE,
SHELBYVILLE, BRANDENBURG, AND HARDINSBURG, THROUGH AT LEAST 1100 PM
EDT OR 1000 PM CDT. THIS BAND OF STORMS IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THEREFORE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THUS FAR. PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS LIKELY, AND SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR
IN URBAN AREAS. THEREFORE BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS WHEN TRAVELING LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
WILL CONTINUE, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET, OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

SMALLCOMB