Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

.THE HERE AND NOW...
TODAY KIND OF HAS THAT MUGGY THUNDERSTORM TYPE FEEL TO IT, AND SURE
ENOUGH, A LINE OF BKN TSRA DEVELOPING OVER SWRN IND ATTM ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SCT AREA OVER WRN KY/WRN TN. PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER
AHEAD OF STG 500MB WAVE FOR A BKN AREA OF TS TO AFFECT THE LMK FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE HOURS. AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH 3KM
CAPE AND SFC-6KM SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM
WRN TN NWD INTO SWRN IND. PER 15Z RUC PW/OMEGA FIELDS, TS SHOULD
COALESCE INTO LINEAR ELEMENTS AND TRANSLATE E/SEWD THRU FA OVER NEXT
6-9 HOURS. WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OUT OF THESE INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPING
ON CONVECTIVE ROLLS, COLOCATED WITH LCLS AOB 1KM AND 0-1KM
ENVIRONMENTAL SRH AOA 150.

.REST OF SHORT TERM...
PER 12Z ETA, MID-LEVEL WAVE KICKS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OUT
OF FA AFTER 5Z/MON, WITH A SOLID INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE BELOW
800MB A GOOD PART OF MON, WHERE ILL GO WITH A 70% SKY COVER. WEAK
LIFT ASSOC SECONDARY 500MB TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU FA MON NIGHT,
COUPLED WITH A REGIONAL INCR IN PW VALUES AND SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE
(GFS FCSTS 44 J/KG AT 2AM TUE FOR KSDF), COULD YIELD SOME -SHRA OVER
NRN PARTS OF LMK FA. HWVR FORCING WOULD HAVE TO PENETRATE RATHER STG
INVERSION, LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL, BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHC -SHRA AS
IN CURRENT FCST FOR MON NIGHT. INVERSION HOLDS IN GFS/ETA FCST RAOB
DATA HINTING THAT SKIES MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR, ESP ACROSS NRN KY/SRN
IND ON TUE. PER GFS, LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT TUE NIGHT AND WITH SFC HIGH
OVER FA, COULD BE A FROSTY START TO WED? FORECASTING SUNSHINE WED AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO REGION.

.EXTENDED PORTION...
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY KEEPING THINGS QUIET WEATHERWISE. HOWEVER BY LATE THURSDAY
STRONG 500 MB LOW PRES EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN TN
VALLEY. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL KY THU
NIGHT WITH WAA PATTERN RAINS SPREADING INTO SRN KY AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE NRN KY AND SRN IN. WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THU AFTN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH...THEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GIVEN ABUNDANT AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH VERY
SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT TEMPS.

.LMK...NONE.

CCS/JMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER SHORTLY AFTER DARK. SEVERAL
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 7 PM
EDT. THE LINE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND REACH INTO THE LOUISVILLE
AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM EDT...AND THE BOWLING GREEN AN LEXINGTON
AREAS BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM EDT (8 AND 10 PM CDT).

STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND ROBUST WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
615 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    JASPER                    IN   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   DUBOIS

0550 PM    MORGANTOWN                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   BUTLER

0600 PM    MORGANTOWN                KY   .75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   BUTLER

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
632 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0618 PM    ROUNDHILL                 KY   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/20/03   EDMONSON

RL