Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ONGOING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY
FORECAST AREA WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY
MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE COLDER AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST IN
IOWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL TIME PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WIND GUSTS. BEHIND THE FRONT
WE MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BUT FOR THE
MOST PART WE EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN INTO THE CFA SATURDAY.

...LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

00Z EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS CYCLE.
BROAD ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY AS POTENT SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. FULL LAT WAVE WILL HEAD
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  DECENT
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO A DECENT RAIN
EVENT COULD MATERIALIZE IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.  AS TO THE
FORECAST...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  BASED ON
THE NEW MODEL RUNS...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  AS FOR TEMPS A BLEND OF HPC AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS WAS
USED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM
FOLLOWED BY A COOLDOWN BY LATE WEEK.

.LMK...NONE.

JA/MJ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-131000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 PM EST NOV 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS, AND AS A RESULT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
EVENING. DUE TO THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES, MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, SO SOME LOW SPOTS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES AND SMALL STREAMS
MAY TEMPORARILY FLOOD WITH WATER DURING AND JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

XXV

KYZ041-042-047>049-055>057-066-067-122301-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
408 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

...HEAVY RAIN FALLING THIS AFTERNOON..

A LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
AND UNDERPASSES. A FEW STREAMS AND CREAKS WILL RISE TO NEAR
BANK-FULL.

REMEMBER NOT TO DRIVE OVER ROADS OR UNDERPASSES COVERED WITH WATER.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

JA