Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) TNGT...BEFORE EXITING ALL OF THE REGION MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SOME DISAGREEMENT STILL WITH SPEED OF FROPA...& AGAIN HAVE ELECTED
TO TAKE THE SLOWER PATH...WITH ONLY WEAK PUSH FROM THE NORTH ALOFT.
EXTREME INSTABILITY ACRS RGN AT MID AFTN WITH CAPES 3-5K AND LIS
MINUS 6 TO MINUS 12. CONVG ALNG SAID FNT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL TSTM DVLPMNT INTO THE EVNG HOURS ... BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING STARTS TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN A BIT.

EVEN THOUGH FRONT WILL STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTH THRU SATURDAY MID-
DAY...ENUF CAPPING... AND DECAY IN DEEP MOISTURE... SHOULD PREVENT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED ARND FA.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VLY SAT NITE THRU MONDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MUCH OF
OUR FA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF A HEAT WAVE OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH
HEAT GRDLY RETURNING TO OUR RGN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

ONCE AGAIN MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CLUSTERED AROUND EACH OTHER...
AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.

EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
DRY AND WARM...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
TSTORMS...WILL NEED MORE CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS SO I KEPT THE DAY
DRY ATTM. THE ENSEMBLES AND GFS BOTH SHOW A EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT...ABOUT 12HRS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORM TEMPS AND LESS HUMID
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIODS...MODELS BEEN HINTING AT POSSIBLE
SHWRS/TSTORMS FOR THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL GO DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND HALT
ANY DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTN.

.LMK...NONE.

STUREY/SCHOTT

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...REMEMBER TO
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE, COUPLED
WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE VALUES, WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO SUGGESTS THE STORMS WOULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAIN. IN ADDITION...LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL
STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

STUREY