Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY END UP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES. IN ITS PLACE A WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL INCH INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UNITES
STATES INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE INTERIM WE WILL STILL NEED
TO MENTION CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER KENTUCKY.

WE WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. IN ADDITION WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO
AVERAGE OF ABOVE AVERAGE MID AUGUST TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

UPPER HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER...NOT UNCOMMON OF LATE SUMMER IN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA...IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 70 WILL BE FORECAST EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS RIDGE BREAKS UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FORECAST BY MODELS LATE IN THE WEEK TO DROP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GRT LAKES TROUGH...HWVR DUE TO LACK OF ANY
CERTAINTY IN REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LMK...NONE.

JA/JMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE
SLOWLY...BRINGING A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE TO ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCED RAIN DURING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JB