Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
205 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

.SHORT TERM (DAYS 0-3)...
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG I-65 CORRIDOR ATTM JUST AHEAD OF 500MB
TROF AXIS AND WITHIN LFQ REGION OF UPSTREAM 300MB JET CORE. WITH
LOWER FREEZING LEVELS WITHIN MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS, REPORTS OF
COPIOUS SMALL HAIL BEING RECEIVED OUT OF CURRENT CELLS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR POTL SVR HAILERS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. A RATHER
COMPLEX & UNCERTAIN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD, REVOLVING AROUND
MEAN ERN CONUS TROF AND NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER LMK FA. PER 15Z RUC,
TROF AXIS SWINGS EWD THIS EVE WITH ATTENDANT SFC TROF MEANDERING SWD
THRU FA. BEST CHCS FOR PCPN LOOK TO ALSO MOVE SEWD ASSOC WITH SFC
TROF AND JET STREAK MVMTS.

THEN INTO TUE-WED TIMEFRAME, SFC TROF SETTLES INTO SRN KY VICINITY.
GFS DEVELOPS STG MCS ACROSS CEN/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. RESULTING MCV
ACTS TO SLOW SFC TROF MVNT WITH A MORE NWD PLACEMENT ACROSS CEN KY
TUE-WED. WILL LEAN TWDS ETA SOLN FOR NOW. ONE LMTG FACTOR FOR PCPN
TUE-WED IS A POOL OF LOWER 850-500MB L/RS NOW OVER MN/IA MOVES INTO
OH VLY REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, IT APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR
TSRA TUE-WED LOOK TO BE ACROSS SRN 1/2 OF FA, CLOSER TO SFC TROF AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND PWS. CONVERSELY, PER MAV/MET MOS
TRENDS, CHCS FOR PCPN LOOK RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS NRN 1/2 OF FA.

YET ANOTHER 500MB TROF DEVELOPS OVER FA BY THU, PER GFS. MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE SOMEWHAT, SO ISO PCPN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, ESP OVER ERN ZONES. HWVR, LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVES WILL REMAIN S OF THE FA, WHICH WOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED PCPN
CHCS. XXV

.EXTENDED PERIOD (DAYS 4-7)...
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA LOOK TO BE JUST WEST OF THE
PATH OF ENERGY ALONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
GENERATING SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG OUR EASTERN
PERIPHERY DURING THE FRIDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME...WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST. EXTENDED TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER AS UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES REDEFINED AND HIGHER AMPLIFIED IN THE VICINITY.
STRONG RIDGE SHOULD HOLD WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS AND
MISSOURI VALLEY SO THAT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VLY. JMB

.LMK...NONE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
210 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, COUPLED
WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL, HIGH
WINDS, FLOODING, OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

SMALLCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0511 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    DEATSVILLE                KY   WIND DAMAGE
08/04/03   NELSON                         WOODEN STRUCTURE AT
                                          ENTRANCE TO CEMETARY BLOWN
                                          DOWN.  REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

JB