Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A
NUMBER OF MID LEVEL VORTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF IN
THE MEAN FLOW...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A BOUT OF PRECIPITATION.
MAIN RAINFALL THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.  WILL INTRODUCE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN
INDIANA COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI GRADUALLY WORKS EASTWARD.  DECENT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF A POSSIBLE MCS
WILL SURELY SPREAD A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA.
AMPLE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY.  DAY TWO SEVERE OUTLOOK HAS ALL OF
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.  INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN RISK.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SAT AND SAT NITE.  WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY...A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN.  FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD A RUN WITH A 50 POP COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS (30 PERCENT) ON
MONDAY.  AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...12Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS GO AROUND AND ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
VALUES.  HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO TRIM HIGHS A BIT DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY DUE TO CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

...EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO LIFT OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN.  NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME.

.LMK...NONE.

JARVIS/NR

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1020 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HAIL, AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAIN. ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.