Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

SHORT TERM: ALTHOUGH SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH 700
MB...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LAYERS...IS
ALLOWING MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A
WEAK VORTICITY MAX THAT WILL SWING THROUGH INDIANA LATER THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...FEEL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

THE LAST OF THE SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES NOW VISIBLE ON
WATER VAPOR OVER MINNESOTA WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD...AND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CROSS TENNESSEE AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY. WITH FORECASTED 500 MB TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE -13 TO -15 C RANGE AND FREEZING LEVEL
ONLY AROUND 11 THOUSAND FEET...INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WEDNESDAY
MAY PROVE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GREAT AS
TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

IN THE EXTENDED: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FARTHER AS THE EASTERN TROUGH IS REPLACED BY
A FLAT RIDGE. AS ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...WILL CONTINUE
ONGOING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LMK...NONE.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED...THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PEA-SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP IGNITE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE PEA TO MARBLE SIZED
HAIL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EITHER SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EITHER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

DENMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1108 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 PM    TRACY                     KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/03   BARREN                         TREES DOWN IN SCATTERED
                                          LOCATIONS. REPORTED BY
                                          HIGHWAY DEPT.

0355 PM    GAMALIEL                  KY   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/03   MONROE                         TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          DISPATCH.

PKW