Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL S/W
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PUSH
A COOL FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AN MCC WHICH DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING HAS HAD A HARD TIME STAYING
TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT HAS RUN INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS DIMINISHED.

THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL DROP INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. FORECAST DATA INDICATES THE FRONT
SHOULD BE ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE FAST WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CFA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MOS GUIDANCE VALUES LOOK GOOD.

LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEAST PART
OF U.S. THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF CLOUDS. WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WITH FRONT STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MORE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES.

.LMK...NONE.

JA/MBS

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-160930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS
A COOL FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND VIVID LIGHTNING. FOR THIS REASON THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JA