Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

.SHORT RANGE CONSIDERATIONS...
ISO-SCT TSRA ROAMING ABOUT SRN KY ATTM, ASSOC WITH LEADING EDGE OF
500MB WAVE AND SFC TROF AXIS. SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES ACROSS SRN KY
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS, AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME
ELEVATED CORES ON THESE GUYS, SO HAIL/HIGH WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THRU EARLY EVE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR HVY PCPN FROM
TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING TS, SINCE STORM MOTIONS ARE BASICALLY
PARALLEL TO SFC BOUNDARY. ON CONTINENTAL SCALE TONIGHT, STG PACIFIC
JET STREAK RIDES EWD ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WRN CONUS RIDGE. THIS LEADS
TO AN INCR NEWD PROGRESSION OF TROF NOW OVER LMK FA, THEREBY
LOWERING PCPN CHCS AS EVE WEARS ON. MID-LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN
MON, LIKELY LEADING TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW FLAT
AFTERNOON CU. ASSOC WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK, 500MB WAVE
PASSING THRU GREAT LAKES ON TUE, TOSSES A SFC FRONT DOWN OUR WAY.
FACTORING IN THE SLOWER ETA SOLN, LOOKS LIKE A CLUSTER/LINE OF TSRA
TIGHTLY ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT TWDS THE OH RIVER TUE AFT. NARROW
RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOC WITH FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH ROBUST
700MB THERMAL RIDGE EQUATORWARD OF FRONT, MAY LIMIT SWD EXTENT OF
PCPN INTO LMK FA FOR TUE AFT. TUE EVE AND INTO WED, WILL ALLOW CHCS
FOR TSRA TO MOVE INTO FA ASSOC WITH BOUNDARY. XXV

.EXTENDED INSIGHTS...
TRICKY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MEANWHILE A SURFACE WAVE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE ENDS UP IN WESTERN TN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AS PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS. EVOLUTION OF THAT
FEATURE IS QUESTIONABLE UNTIL WE CAN GET MORE OF A CONSENSUS. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AT
WHICH TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AND APPROACH OF TROUGH WILL
WARRANT CHANCE POPS...CONTINUING INTO NEXT SUNDAY. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW WARMING ONCE AGAIN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 90S AT THAT TIME. JB

.LMK...NONE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    10 NW SCOTTSVILLE         KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/13/03   ALLEN                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC TO
                                          CENTRAL DISPATCH.

RES