Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

.SHORT RANGE... THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS S/W AXIS FM  ARKANSAS NEWD UP THE OHIO
RIVER AT MID AFTN...WITH PLUME OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING
OUR FORECAST AREA (FA).  S/W AXIS WILL PIVOT EWD TNGT AND THRU E
FA AREAS LATE TNGT.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FM 1.75-2.00
INCHES...AND S/W INTERACTING WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS..WE WILL KEEP
HVY RAIN MENTIONED THIS EVNG WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. LATER TNGT DO
THINK OUR WRN AREAS WILL HAVE A PAUSE ALTHOUGH LATE NITE TROPICAL
LIKE SHWRS AGAIN PSBL FAR SOUTH AND EAST HAVE. MEANWHILE SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS GATHERING TO OUR NORTH AND PROBABLY WILL JELL
INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TNGT. THICKNESS PTN SUGGESTS THAT IS
SHUD STAY TO OUR NORTH.

WILL LIKELY HAVE AN OUTFLOW BNDRY SENT DOWN INTO PARTS OF OUR NRN
FA ON MONDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM S/W IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES HEADS
RPDLY SEWD INTO THE OHIO VLY. CUD BE A CONVECTIVE SYS DVLP WITH THIS
S/W...WHICH WOULD CLIP PARTS OF OUR FA MONDAY. INTENSIFYING WIND
FIELDS AT H5 SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ERN 1/2 OF FA.

A BIT OF RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO ALL OF OUR FA MONDAY NITE...
AND WILL KEEP FCST DRY.

MORE ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VLY...ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS
ON TUE...WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ON TAP.

TUE NITE AND WEDNESDAY WILL OFFER MORE TSTM CHANCES AS FRONTAL BNDRY
SAGS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SEEMINGLY ENDLESS
S/WS IN FLOW.

.EXTENDED THOUGHTS...

SHORT WAVE THAT DELAYS COLD FRONT A DAY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...A GOOD BET TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD FRONT OF ITS OWN. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT BRIEF COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR...BUT WITH RISING
HEIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND...SEE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER SO
FAR...AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN.

.LMK...NONE.

STUREY/NR

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
MINIMAL...HOWEVER A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSE RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM. AS ALWAYS, DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND POINTS IN NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER AND WEAR APPROPRIATE CLOTHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, FOR WHICH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF A LOUISVILLE
TO LONDON LINE MONDAY.

IN ADDITION, HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 100 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. PEOPLE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS DURING THESE PERIODS SHOULD PLAN TO WEAR APPROPRIATE
CLOTHING AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PARTS OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER, FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

REITMEYER