Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

CONSENSUS IS ON FASTER MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
TODAY.  COLD FRONT LOCATED ATTM FROM PEORIA TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK...SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CTRL KY AND S CTRL IND ABOUT
MIDDAY...BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z OR SO.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SHWRS MOVING INTO E CTRL IL AND
W CTRL IND ATTM JUST AHEAD OF SFC BNDRY.

DESPITE A COUPLE DIFFERENT ISSUES SUCH AS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT / PWATS ONLY AROUND 1 TO 1.25...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  THE MORNING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  AMS BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIS MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6.  FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR...HWVR HELICITY
VALUES NOT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO THREAT.  THEREFORE MAIN THREAT WITH
ISO TO SCT MIDDAY AND AFTN TSTMS WILL BE REACHING SEVERE POTENTIAL
VIA STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER 50KTS POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO THIN AND
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE.  NO CHANGES TO POP ARRANGEMENT...WILL
CONTINUE ONLY CHANCE POPS.  FOR TONIGHT WILL REMOVE POPS IN THE WEST
AND KEEP A SMALL POP DURING THE EARLY EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PORTION.

NO CHANGES TO THE MONDAY - TUESDAY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRES IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUES AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VLY TUES NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.  SEVERAL WAVES RIDE ALONG BOUNDARY
WED AND THU MAKING FOR A WET PERIOD IN THE FCST.  WILL BRING PRECIP
IN A LITTLE FASTER INTO TUES EVNG BUT WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW
AS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE OH RIVER DURING THE
DAY.  NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS EXPECTED.

.LMK...NONE.

JMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
615 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WILL AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.

A SHARP COLD FRONT...POISED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTLOOK AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THE PROLONGED
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

JB