Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EST FRI APR 4 2003

FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED TO THE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY NOONTIME. BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE UP INTO THE MID 70S. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE BUT THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN MISSOURI SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE THUNDERSTORMS...
TIMING OF ONSET AND ENDING OF STORMS...HOW WIDESPREAD AND SEVERITY.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR THROUGH FIRST PART OF FORECAST WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER STRONGER GFS GAINING FAVOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3 AS NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO FA.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES
EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASING. THIS
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...
REACHING EAST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY MID TO LATE EVENING INTO EARLY
HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL SPREAD LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST OVER FA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE MORE NUMEROUS
STORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER
THE FAR EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO CLOSER TO ETA MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THEN THICKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL GO DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH OVER THE
REGION. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE US TO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHERE TO TAKE
IT FROM THERE AND SYSTEM SEEMS TO WEAKEN. SHOULD BE A SLOW WARM UP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WILL NOT CHANGE EXTENDED MUCH WITH VARIABILITY
IN THE MODELS.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ/PYE

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
810 PM EST FRI APR 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL APPROACH THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A LINE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WILL
REACH A LINE FROM MADISON INDIANA, TO LOUISVILLE, TO BOWLING GREEN,
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO
BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

AS THE INITIAL LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 TOWARDS LEXINGTON AND COLUMBIA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER SOME GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS EVENING.

JMB

INZ076>079-050400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 PM EST FRI APR 4 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 PM EST ACROSS ORANGE,
WASHINGTON, SCOTT, AND MADISON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
DEADLY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH.

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