Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.SHORT TERM...

THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA.
STRONG STORMS OVER THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES HAS ROBBED MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON A COOL
FRONT LOCATED FROM MISSOURI TO CENTRAL OHIO. THESE STORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR (18:30Z) AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVED INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DROP SOUTH
OF THE CFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WE WILL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MODELS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW TRAVELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL FIRE UP MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING FOR TUESDAY AND
WILL GO DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WILL BE A TAD COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LMK...NONE

JA/KP

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-070930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1025 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA
OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH
THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD REACH A LINE
FROM JASPER INDIANA TO BEAVER DAM IN OHIO COUNTY KENTUCKY...BY ABOUT
1 AM EDT (1200 AM CDT/EST). THE LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PART OF A LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN 1 AM EDT AND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

VERY INTENSE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THERE
WILL BE A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY. URBAN
AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN
BE A THREAT AS WELL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0838 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0820 PM    DEPUTY                    IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   JEFFERSON                      TREES BLOWN DOWN IN DEPUTY
                                          REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

0813 PM    1 W DEPUTY                IN   40 MPH WIND GUST
05/06/03   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER

JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>064-070>076-
070700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

...INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HEADED INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA...

AT 1230 AM EDT AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...INTENSE LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH AN AREA FROM
AROUND JASPER INDIANA TO BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 100 AND 130
AM EDT (1200 AND 1230 AM CDT). THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD REACH
AN AREA FROM MADISON INDIANA TO LOUISVILLE METRO TO CAVE CITY
BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM EDT.

PEOPLE SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO,
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET, OR LOCAL MEDIA...IN CASE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEREFORE
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR YOUR
LOCATION ALSO EXISTS.

JMB