Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EST MON FEB 3 2003

995MB SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 18Z
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MOVING TO LOW TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
06Z.  WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SDF AND BWG AROUND 05Z AND
LEX BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULES OUT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z.

WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SINCE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULE OUT TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID 50S THIS EVENING BUT WILL BEGIN A
RAPID DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. READINGS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND RISE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
KENTUCKY. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW AND LIGHT IN NATURE.

.SDF...NONE.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EST MON FEB 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL DEADLY LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS NEARING 55 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. KEEP IN MIND ALSO THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT
RAPIDLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, TO A WESTERLY ONE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE OUTLOOK
AREA THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

SMALLCOMB