Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 270741
FFSLMK
KYC111-185-270830-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 AM EDT FOR OLDHAM AND 
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO SLOWLY 
MOVE THROUGH JEFFERSON AND OLDHAM COUNTIES. AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING 
IN THIRTY MINUTES HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SHIVELY. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS 
AND OVERPASSES WERE EXPERIENCING LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO NORTHEAST AT 25 MILES AN HOUR WHILE THE 
LINE WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED 
ROADWAYS.

$$
PYE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
237 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

...SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

VERY ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG COLD FRONT IS PLOWING
INTO THE REGION.  INTENSE LIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA AND OVERALL THE LINE HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR AS THE LINE IS FEEDING
OFF VERY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 0-3KM HELICITIES FROM KILN WERE IN
THE 300-400 M2/S2 RANGE.  AS TO THE FORECAST...TWO MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS PACKAGE.  FIRST WILL BE DEALING WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FA.  SECOND FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE DEALING WITH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

00Z MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...THE ETA IS A LITTLE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN TROF...WHILE THE GFS IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  00Z MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  IN GENERAL...MODELS SWING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.  EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH LOUISVILLE SHORTLY AND THEN SHOULD BE THROUGH LEXINGTON BY
13-14Z OR SO.  IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT CONVECTIVE LINE TO CONTINUE
ON EASTWARD.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CAT POPS FOR THE
EASTERN 1/2 HALF.  EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.  H5 TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN FULL
SWING EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
AS TROF AXIS HEADS EAST ON MONDAY...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...00Z TEMP GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COOL BY MONDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

...EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

...WITH ON GOING SEVERE WEATHER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST...  PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO LACK DECENT MOISTURE
RETURN...LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER WESTERN KY AND ERN MO DVLPS ON THE
GFS AT 120 HRS. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE SHWRS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL
CONTINUE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH WED NIGHT UNDER COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE CLEARING OUT. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ADVECTS IN. EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET
IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO A MOIST GROUND AND A NEED FOR MORE
CONSISTENCY IN EXTDD MOS. AT ANY RATE...AT LEAST 10 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. -JB

.SDF...
IN...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6AM FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES.
KY...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6AM FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

JARVIS

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
950 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND ALSO A PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.

VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRIKE OVERNIGHT WHEN SOME
PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING...THEREFORE...IT IS SUGGESTED YOU TURN ON YOUR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO BEFORE GOING TO BED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED OVERNIGHT.

STUREY

INZ076>079-083-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE WAY...

SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ROUGHLY FROM JASPER THROUGH PAOLI...SALEM
AND SCOTTSBURG...TO MADISON...THROUGH 1 AM EST.

WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

PEOPLE IN DUBOIS...ORANGE...WASHINGTON...SCOTT AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN A PLACE OF SAFETY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 2 AM EST.

STUREY

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-270600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH 200 AM EDT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SHOULD BE ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

STUREY

INZ077>079-084-089>092-KYZ032-270700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
112 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA...JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...THROUGH 3 AM
EDT. SOME CITIES IMPACTED WILL BE TELL CITY...ENGLISH...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE AND MADISON.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

PEOPLE IN THE MENTIONED AREAS SHOULD BE AT A PLACE OF SAFETY NOW.

STUREY