Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 312325
FFSLMK
KYC067-010015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR FAYETTE
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 700 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL CARS WERE 
STRANDED IN HIGH WATER ON RICHMOND AND NICKOLAUSVILLE ROADS SOUTH OF 
LEXINGTON. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL 
WITHIN 2 HOURS EARLIER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF LEXINGTON. EXPECT 
ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES THIS EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM BROUGHT FLASH FLOODING TO SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$
JSD

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 010011
FFSLMK
KYC067-010030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
810 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR
FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

FAYETTE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THE FLASH 
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAD ENDED IN THE LEXINGTON METRO AREA. THEREFORE 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

$$

JB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES. TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR A FEW SOUTHERN
INDIANA COUNTIES.

...PREVIOUS AFD...

.SHORT TERM...

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF EVV TO SDF AND JUST SOUTH OF
LEX AT 18Z. S/W ENERGY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF OUR COUNTY FORECAST AREA
AND SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CFA IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI.
MOISTURE FROM T.D. GRACE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA, KANSAS,
AND MISSOURI TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CFA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST TO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. DURING
THIS TRANSITION, WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. FOR THIS REASON
THE SPC AS PUT MUCH OF THE CFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY BUT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STILL CONTAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHEN THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY KICKS OFF TO THE EAST. 12Z GFS INDICATES
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER STALLED BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY
AND GENERATES ANOTHER SFC WAVE AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP. OLD EUROPEAN
INDICATES UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY BY NEXT
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. WILL INCREASE SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS A NUDGE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...AROUND 60
FOR LOWS AND AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.

.LMK...FFA FOR THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNTIL 8 AM
EDT.

JA/JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING A
POSSIBILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ON LABOR DAY.  ROBUST WIND FIELDS...ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST
MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE ENCOURAGED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

JA