Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Elko, NV

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
146 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE CIRCULATING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SHORT TERM...WHILE SOME DRIER AIR HAS INFILTRATED WRN NV...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE INVADING MUCH OF NV
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE CIRCULATION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTN AND EVENING
TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TO NRN NV WITH HIGHER AFTN
TEMPS AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF TSTORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE CWA. STILL HOLDING OFF ON FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE BUT DO EXPECT A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING. WL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE IF THESE STORMS HAPPEN TO PASS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
ABUNDANT PCPN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS SHOW A 50-60 KT
RR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ACRS NRN NV THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE ON
CONVECTION. AS WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND
DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTORM POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUN. ON SUN THE UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATES FURTHER WEST TO OVER UTAH AND THE ATMOS APPEARS TO BE A
LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN ON SAT BUT DYNAMICS NOT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
BEST COUPLING OF LLVL CONV AND DIV ALOFT WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. SCT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY AFTN LOOKS GOOD IN THE FCST. AS
THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL NV ON MON AND TUE TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOOT BACK UP TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AND BEST MOISTURE
WL CIRCULATE OVER THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS AND WRN NV. A SCHC OF
AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION ACRS THE CWA STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

.EXTENDED...ON WED THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST NV BUT BY
THU/FRI IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE MOVE BACK EAST ACRS UT AS A TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE AND IS LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST THU AND
BECOMES PHASED WITH A PAC S/WV. FEEL LIKE THE MRF IS A LITTLE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE RIDGE EAST TOO FAST AND PREFER THE POSITION
OF THE ECMWF A LITTLE BETTER. DURING THIS TIME-FRAME MOISTURE WL
STILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN KEEPING SCHC TO CHC
AFTN/EVENING WORDING IN THE EXTENDED FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

.EKO...NONE.

SEDLOCK

NVZ030>037-271300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
527 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

COLLINS