Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Elko, NV

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
222 PM PDT SUN AUG 3 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SILVER STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING
DRY WEATHER...STRONGER WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...KLRX RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL NV THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO VORT FEATURE ROTATING
THROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST NV AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. JET DYNAMICS
NOT IN PLACE AS ON SATURDAY BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA INTO THIS EVENING WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE ERN PAC MOVES CLOSER TO NRN CA AND VORT FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND IT TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. MUCH OF NRN NV WL BE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE BY AFTN AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE...NOT TO MENTION SOME
UPPER JET ENERGY...COULD SEE SOME STORMS ESPECIALLY IN HUMBOLDT CTY
BECOME SVR. GOOD DIV/CONV COUPLING BY AFTN IS ALSO PROGGED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACRS THE SILVER STATE AND WILL KEEP BREEZY WORDING GOING FOR THOSE
DAYS. FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST GFS IS STILL SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...MAINLY OVER NRN NV AND WL GO WITH SCHC
WORDING FOR TUESDAY AS A RESULT. A 60+ KT LF QUAD OF THE UPPER JET IS
ALSO PROGGED OVER NORTHEAST NV FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY AIR FILTERS IN ACRS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLIGHT WARM-UP.

.EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION
OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE MRF TRIES TO BUILD IT BACK WESTWARD.
DURING THIS TIME A LARGE PAC NW TROUGH WILL HANG JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WEST OF WASHINGTON
STATE. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE MRF TRIES TO SNEAK SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL NV. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS MCLEAR UNTIL MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS SEEN THAT FAR OUT BEFORE CHANGING SKY CONDITIONS.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACRS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ACRS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

.EKO...NONE.

SEDLOCK

NVZ030>037-041400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FEHRN