Tornado Warning 44, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
315 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SE
TO BETWEEN BTR AND MSY BY 12Z THEN PROGRESS STEADILY SE THROUGH
SUNDAY. LEAD SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SW LA AND NW GULF
THIS AFTERNOON. TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH
LOUISIANA AT MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT ACTIVITY IS NOT
HIGHLY ORGANIZED OR SEVERE IN NATURE.  ISOLATED SEVERE TREAT
CONTINUES PRIMARILY DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS INITIAL
SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE TSTMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO S LA...TSTMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SW MS AND E CENTRAL LA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SEVERE IN WESTERN ZONES...THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DECREASE
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  SHALLOW SLOPE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN AND ELEVATED TSTMS BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD END FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH AREA...THOUGH CLOUDS NOT ANTICIPATED
TO DIMINISH UNTIL DURING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. 40S SHOULD BE COMMON MOST AREAS AND COULD NOT RULE OUT UPPER
30S SW MS.

AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SW WITH NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR MID WEEK AND ESPECIALLY BY FRI
AND INTO SAT AS SLY SURFACE RETURNS. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITAION.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 63/66/45/64 8621  BTR 65/68/48/63 7621
MSY 68/74/56/64 5621  GPT 68/76/50/64 4722

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
538 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTH AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN
COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
LEADING INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A FEW OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LEADING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
SUNDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD AGAIN BE STRONG IN NATURE MAINLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
WATCHES FOR ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.