Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1030 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

WILL BE UPDATING THE TEXT PRODUCTS SOON AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS AS
TIME ALLOWS. CONCERNS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE. STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL SOUTHWEST LA TO THE FLORIDA PARISHES OF
SOUTHEAST LA TO NEAR HATTIESBURG MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL TRAINING OF ECHOES TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY HAIL GIVEN HISTORY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS TOWARDS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
WELL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH
LA AND MUCH OF SOUTH MS UNTIL 4 PM CDT. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF PRESENT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
INCLUDE METRO BATON ROUGE...THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
AND SOUTHWEST MS AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS. THERE MAY BE 2 OR 3
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL ISSUE THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NOW. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA. POPS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MS COAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
MESOSCALE FORCING IN CASE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
ACTIVATE THE CONVECTION. UPDATED ZONES...HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...AND FLOOD WATCH WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

MCB 78/61/70/47 8+50  BTR 80/62/71/49 8+60
MSY 82/67/73/55 6981  GPT 77/66/74/52 6981

.NEW...NONE
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-080000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO DAY ONE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. A VERY MOIST...WARM...AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND NUMEROUS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN THE THREAT OF FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS ALONG
WITH FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
CAUSE NUMEROUS RIVERS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
SHOULD RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL AND A RESULTANT LOWER THREAT OF
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 59. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BY AFTERNOON.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.