Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1030 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

WILL BE UPDATING THE TEXT PRODUCTS SOON AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS AS
TIME ALLOWS. CONCERNS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE. STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL SOUTHWEST LA TO THE FLORIDA PARISHES OF
SOUTHEAST LA TO NEAR HATTIESBURG MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL TRAINING OF ECHOES TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. INITIAL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY HAIL GIVEN HISTORY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS TOWARDS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
WELL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH
LA AND MUCH OF SOUTH MS UNTIL 4 PM CDT. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF PRESENT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
INCLUDE METRO BATON ROUGE...THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
AND SOUTHWEST MS AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS. THERE MAY BE 2 OR 3
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SO WILL ISSUE THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NOW. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA. POPS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MS COAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
MESOSCALE FORCING IN CASE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
ACTIVATE THE CONVECTION. UPDATED ZONES...HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...AND FLOOD WATCH WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

MCB 78/61/70/47 8+50  BTR 80/62/71/49 8+60
MSY 82/67/73/55 6981  GPT 77/66/74/52 6981

.NEW...NONE
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-071630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT ONE THOUSAND FEET ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT
ADDITIONAL UNSTABLE GULF AIR INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW RELATIVE HUMID LEVELS MAY RESULT IN A WILDFIRE HAZARD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE REQUESTED TONIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ON THIS PERIOD OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.