Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
240 AM CST WED MAR 26 2003

A VERY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT WEEK TO
TEN DAYS ACROSS THE SRN U.S.  FIRST SYSTEM IS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MARCHING E AND SE THRU E TX AND NRN LA THIS MORNING WILL COLLIDE
OVER SRN MS/SE AND SCNTRL LA TODAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION FOR TODAY ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
BUT MOST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE ONE INCH OR LESS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW
AND DEEPEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRI AND SAT BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT WITH IT AND A DEFINITE CHILL TO THE AIR FOR LATE MARCH THIS
WEEKEND. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS OUTBREAK OF PRECIP WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS FOR SAT DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY. LOWER MS VALLEY MAY BE IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG JET MAX AND A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD INTO THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. WILL INCREASE COASTAL WATERS WINDS TO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE AND MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY ON SAT.

PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW...

MCB 70/52/78/57 8100
BTR 69/54/77/58 8200
MSY 73/58/77/61 7300
GPT 72/55/74/59 6300

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-271230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CST WED MAR 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL HAIL FROM A VERY FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAIL SIZE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE
ALOFT AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES IN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THURSDAY OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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