Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
115 PM CST THU NOV 27 2003

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  ALOFT THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER AND A JET STREAK FROM
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.  THESE FACTORS WERE
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OFFSHORE
EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA.  THE AREA OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AFFECT US FROM THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE ETA...GFS..AND NGM WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM IS SLOWER
THAN EARLIER RUNS.  THE 500HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS AND THEN
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THIS
EVENING...THEN RACE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
STRONG...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
FRIDAY.  TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER
EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.  THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN CLOSER TO 40F.

BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A TREND BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS WITH DIMINISHED WINDS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MCB 47/57/29/56 8000  BTR 79/58/32/56 8000
MSY 54/59/39/57 8000  GPT 53/61/33/55 8000

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 PM CST THU NOV 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTH AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ALL
OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED LOCATIONS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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