Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
130 AM CST THU NOV 27 2003

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DATA WHICH WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
FORECAST THIS TURKEY OF A DAY.
ETA AND AVN ARE CLOSE IN INITIALIZING WITH LOCAL 00Z 500MB ANALYSES.
UKMET HAS MAIN TROUGH FURTHER EAST THAN EITHER ETA OR AVN. AFTER 18
HOURS UKMET DIGS TROF FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN 28/00Z WHILE ETA AND AVN DO NOT CLOSE OFF THE LOW.
IN EITHER CASE THE END RESULT IS THE UKMET SLOWS DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO MEET THE AVN/ETA TIMING AT 28/00Z AND SLOWS IT
FURTHER THEREAFTER. III STICK WITH THE AVN/ETA TIMING WHICH HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND .DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY 28/00Z AND
THROU SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES AROUND 28/06Z OR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHERLU FLOW AHEAD OF 500MB TROUGH ENHANCING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES TODAY. CURRENT WATCH AREA IS A TAD
TOO FAR EAST AND TOO EARLY...BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE EXTENDED THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THREAT OF FEW SEVERE IN ZONES TODAY. MAIN THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THIS MORNING WITH PREFRONTAL LINE. WILL
KEPP HIGH POPS IN FOR TODAY AND EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPS AND WINDS. STRENGTH OF RIDGE TO
THE WEST SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY OVER LAKES AND
COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS WIL DROP INTO LOWER 30S SATURDAY AM.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MCB 74/48/59/29 +800  BTR 76/48/59/33 +800
MSY 75/54/59/39 9800  GPT 70/53/61/33 8800

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1020 PM CST WED NOV 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTH AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO
THE WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG IN NATURE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.