Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THE PRIMARY SETTING FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE GENERAL PERSISTENCE
FROM DAY TO DAY ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES. THE CWA IS
SADDLED BETWEEN DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGHING ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED ALOFT
WHICH TYPICALLY EXPOSES THE AREA TO RESIDUAL MCS ENERGY ROTATING
FROM THE NORTH. THE GFS INDICATES A VORTICITY LOBE DROPPING OUT OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND SKIRTING OUR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS TAKE PLACE...IT SHOULD INTERACT AND
ENHANCE COVERAGE DUE TO LAKE AND SEABREEZE GENERATION. WILL OPT TO
GO WITH 50 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS SCENARIO THEN BACK OFF TO 40
AND 30 PERCENT IN THE ENSUING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE WITH SEASONAL LOWER TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR MINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

NO COASTAL ISSUES TO MENTION. IN THE TROPICS...MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW
A TRAIN OF THREE DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
EMERGING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER
TROPICAL LATITUDES THROUGH THE 26TH OF AUGUST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THESE FEATURES AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS CAN ULTIMATELY LEAD TO AN
ACTIVE LABOR DAY WEEKEND FOR SOMEONE SOMEWHERE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MCB 73/92/73/93 2524      BTR 75/92/75/92 2524
MSY 77/92/77/91 2524      GPT 75/90/75/90 2524

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-170600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
445 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT STRESS...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 107 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AND LOCAL DOWNBURSTS 30 TO 40 MPH...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH.
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 100 TO 107 WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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