Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

RCONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE UP IN FORECAST AREA SINCE WE EXCEEDED
CONVECTED CONDENSATION TEMPERATURE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURST. MAIN CONCERN FOR EARLY PART OF FORECAST WILL BE AREAS
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHATRAIN AND MS COAST FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

RUNNING LATE TODAY. USED GFS FOR GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
IN LOW LEVELS IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT...DIFFLUENT SURFACE TO 500
MB THICKNESS...AND ABOUT 20 KNOTS 850 TO 300 MB SPEED SHEAR WILL ALL
COMBINE TO GIVE A RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE WET MICROBURSTS.

MCB 75/89 68/90 6522  BTR 76/89/69/90 6522  MSY 77/88 73/89 5633
GPT 76/88 69/89 3633

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

23

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-231630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT.

THE APPROACH OF A MID SUMMER COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE VERY
UNSTABLE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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