Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
120 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...ANOTHER BUSY WEATHER DAY WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP LIKE 2 DAYS AGO. INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES CAUSED EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROKEN TO SOLID LINE. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2 PM...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WITH
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE SEA AND LAKE
BREEZES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTH ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED
MID/UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION TODAY. PW/S ARE
NEAR 2 INCHES NEAR THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL SAG SOUTH TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH MS AND THE PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST LA NORTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO INCLUDE HIGHER POPS AREAWIDE AND SEVERE
WORDING THIS AFTERNOON.

MCB 90/72/90/72/92 7542          BTR 91/74/90/74/91 6542
MSY 92/75/90/75/92 5442          GPT 90/74/89/74/89 6442

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ACROSS AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR TWO POSSIBLE. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY. IN
ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.