Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
135 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF THE FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE GULF
COAST REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. A BROAD UPPER TROF
AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST STATES ALSO REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD ALONG THE
BASE. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN TO HOLD AT LEAST
INTO MID WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE OUT WEST EXPANDS ALLOWING THE UPPER
TROF TO MOVE EASTWARD. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN THIS ANALYSIS...THIS
MAY BRING A TEMPORARY HALT TO THE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CWA/PWA. IN THE SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAINS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY AND MONDAY ALTHOUGH QPF GUIDANCE
FROM HPC DOES NOT INDICATE ANY WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 88/69/87/69 6464  BTR 88/71/87/71 6464
MSY 89/74/88/74 5353  GPT 88/72/87/72 5353

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-161130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AIDED BY A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING CONCERNS...SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. THEREFORE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN AND NEAR THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING AROUND LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LEADING INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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