Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
510 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

UPDATED TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH...

ALOFT THERE WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH VORT MAXS
OVER WEST TEXAS AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE JET MAX
STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY WERE AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF VORT MAXS ROTATE AROUND IT. THE SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSH QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON TODAY AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING PRECIP WATER VALUES
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AND BEING NEAR THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MAX SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINS IN THE AREA.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LOWERING
THE POPS A BIT. WE LOOK TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR
POPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM...LEADING TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

PRELIM NUMBERS

MCB 83/69/86/71 9442    BTR 83/71/86/73 9442
MSY 84/75/86/75 9452    GPT 82/74/85/74 9452

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO PASCAGOULA OUT
       TO 60 NM.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST TAMMANY-JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
     ST BERNARD-PLAQUEMINES.
MS...FLOOD WATCH PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON.

25

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-071130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO EXPANDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AIDING IN THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

MARINE HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 60 NM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FIRST RESPONSE AGENCIES SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR AREAS PRONE TO URBAN AND STREET FLOODING.