Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1100 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

CURRENT FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK AS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI FROM THE WEST. A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AREA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FOLLOWING AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY MARGINAL
FOR A SLIM RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT. PATTERN RESEMBLES
MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OR MORE MAY FALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS DONT SUGGEST THAT
A FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY AS ITS BEEN RATHER DRY THE PAST 6 WEEKS.

PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AT MID-MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HORUS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A
BIT. HOWEVER AS THE SUN SETS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DENSE FOG MAY REDEVELOP RATHER EARLY OVER THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS RESULTING
IN VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS.  A NOWCAST
(NEWNOWNEW) HAS BEEN WRITTEN CONCERNING THE FOG OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SW PASS TO PQL.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-161230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A SQUALL LINE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
MAINLY TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
OVER EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY SLIM AT
THIS TIME.  IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A HALF INCH TO TWO
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
SOUTHWEST PASS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PROMPT THE ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
THURSDAY. A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER AREA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DRAG A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE STRONG AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE REQUESTED TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STRONG SYSTEM  APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SHOULD STAY ABREAST TO THIS WEATHER SITUATION LATER THIS
WEEK.