Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
305 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS NOW GUIDED BY GUIDANCE FROM NHC
AND HPC AS TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC AS WELL AS
HURRICANE LOCAL ACTION STATEMENTS ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

BY LATE TUE...MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
THOUGH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SOME GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE REGION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A FAIRLY WEAK TROUGH SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH
THE REGION AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME
PERSISTENT MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD AMOUNT TO A CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 081/073/086/074 +973  BTR 083/074/086/074 +973
MSY 083/078/087/077 +973  GPT 080/077/085/076 +973

.NEW...TROPICAL STORM WARNING PQL TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER INCLUDING
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-301130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
...TROPICAL STORM BILL...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH PEAK
RATES AROUND THREE INCHES PER HOUR. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

MARINE INTEREST SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM BILL AS IT
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM BILL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS FROM AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL STORM BILL FROM THE GULF STARTING MONDAY. THIS SITUATION
SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL STARTING
MONDAY BRINGING MANY AREA RIVERS AT OR ABOVE FLOOD LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE NON-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
216 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0149 AM    NEW LKFRNT ARPT           LA   MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND
06/30/03   ORLEANS                        MEASURED 35 KNOT GUST ON
                                          KNEW ASOS IN TROPICAL
                                          SQUALL.

RJR