Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Lake Charles, LA

October 25, 2003Orange County, Texas

NWS Lake Charles, LA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 25, 2003, 11:29 AM CDT for Orange County, Texas. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 25, 2003, 11:29 AM CDT (16:29 UTC)
Expired
Oct 25, 2003, 12:30 PM CDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
NWS Lake Charles, LA
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Orange County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Oct 25, 9:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-10-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1328 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-10-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 127 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1328 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
769 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KLCH 251629
SVRLCH
TXC361-251730-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...MOVING
  EAST AT 5 MPH.

* PINE FOREST IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3023 9409 3012 9406 3016 9391 3023 9390

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 25, 10:06 AM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 25, 10:06 AM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 AM CDT SAT 25 OCT 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED BY
SPC. WATCH EXPIRES AT 3 PM WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED THIS MORNING
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN KCRP AND KGLS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.

25/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES QUITE A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH PWAT AT 1.3 INCHES. THE SOUNDING DOES INDICATE SOME
DRY AIR BETWEEN 8H-5H. ALL THIS SEEMS TO BE DOING IS LOWERING
WET-BULB ZERO TO 9K FT. LAPS AND MSAS ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS AIRMASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1K-1.5K J/KG AND LIS
BETWEEN (-4) AND (-6). THIS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RADAR OPERATOR INDICATES VIL OF THE DAY IS 44KG/M2. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP POPS
UP TO 50 PERCENT AND ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS.

LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION HAS STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KLCH 82 61 66 44 / 50 80 50 00
KBPT 81 58 65 45 / 50 80 50 00
KAEX 81 58 62 40 / 50 80 50 00
KLFT 83 63 67 44 / 50 80 70 00

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL ZONES UNTIL 3 PM.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL ZONES UNTIL 3 PM.

07-RUA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MUGGY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BUT WITH A LIGHT BREEZE AND WEAK PVA...
DONT LOOK FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AROUND CORPUS CHRISTI
WILL MOVE NE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGINNING MID-MORNING OVER SE TX AND THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SE OK-NW TX WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SEWD TODAY. HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT 4-5 HOURS
OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL COME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SPC HAS
US IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING AS HIGH CAPES...GOOD CONVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS POINT TO POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON
THE NEGATIVE SIDE...MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW VERY LITTLE SHEAR. WITH
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME A
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN THE ZONES AS WELL.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER...COOLER...
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MET.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE DRY AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OFF
THE GULF. WILL ALSO GO WITH LOW POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURN.

WILEY
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 25, 5:45 AM CDT, 5 hours 44 minutes before
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-252300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 1 INCH WILL BE ON TAP WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

.INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.

WILEY

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.