Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

PRECIP CHANCES/PLACEMENT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE TEMPS

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CU/VIRGA AT ABOUT 15K FT OR
MORE...AN INDICATION OF THE SHALLOW MSTR BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT. KLNX
SHOWING LONE TCU IN MCPHERSON COUNTY AND VISIBLE INSPECTION SHOWS
THIS TO BE GROWING BUT OBVIOUSLY GETTING WARM/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
MSAS MSTR CONVERGENCE ALSO PEGGING THIS AREA AND WITH BOUNDARY
SHOWING UP ON KLNX/KUEX RADARS THIS WOULD BE THE PLACE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. FURTHER S...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD THIS
EVE...BUT THINK THAT WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE SEEN THO IN RECENT NIGHTS THAT A
SINGLE CB CAN DEVELOP UNDER THE TOUGHEST OF CONDITIONS (WARM AIR
ALOFT).

THE BETTER ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD COME TWD SUNSET AND LATER AS
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL THRU THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL JET DOES INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND LOCALLY RUN WS ETA-KF
DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NERN PART OF THE CWA AROUND 06Z. NCEP
RUN ETA-KF DOES AS WELL. 18Z OPERL ETA SLOWING FRONT SOME AND THEN
DEVELOPING QPF BULLSEYE IN SD AS THE GOOD CONVERGENCE SET UP BY
ADVANCING FRONT AND LLJ. SO IT SEEMS THERE MAY BE TWO SEPARATE TIMES
OF CONVECTION...THIS EVE AND LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE TRIED TO PLAY
THIS IN GRIDS. WHERE THE FRONT LIES AFTER CONVECTION WILL BE THE
CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST FOR FRIDAY. INITIAL GUESS IS THAT IT
WONT GET AS FAR S AS THE ETA THINKS AND LIKE THE SLOWER AVN POSITION
BETTER. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA IN THE
SRN ZONES FOR FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MSTR POOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DECENT SHEAR AS MID LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP...BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS FROM LBF AND NEWD BY EVENING. STILL...UPPER WAVE
SHOULD INDUCE BEST LL CONVERGENCE IN THE NERN ZONES...HENCE BORDER
OF MDT RISK OF SVR THERE.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR SAT WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO PROGRESS
SWD/EWD SAT NIGHT LATE. APPEARS BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE N OF CWA...BUT LEFT IN CHANCE FURTHER N IN PROXIMITY OF FRONT.
FRONT SEEMS TO LOSE ITS PUSH SUNDAY AND SHOULD HANG UP IN C NEB INTO
MONDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR OGRANIZED PRECIP FOR
THE CWA. GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES APPEAR SIMILAR WILL LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND TRENDED TEMPS MON/TUES TWD MEX GUIDANCE EVEN THOUGH IT
IS ON THE LOWER RANGE OF MEX ENSEMBLE MAXES. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP/ERLY
WINDS A RAPID WARMUP WILL LIKELY NOT HAPPEN. ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.LBF...NONE.

JWS

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
555 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN A SMALL PART OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE RISK AREA IS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW THROUGH BASSETT TO BURWELL.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS A COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEBRASKA. THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE IS IN THE HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE PRIMARY
RISK ARE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN
BOW.

ON SATURDAY...THE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA COMBINED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN...SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AND OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

SPRINGER