Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGES HIGHLIGHTED BY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FIRST
THREE DAYS...THEN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...

H5 PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHTS. PESKY UPPR LOW
REMAINS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT FROM THE NEW ENGLAND LOW...TROF HAS
PERSISTED ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING
WEST...DISTURBANCE ENTERING SWRN WY ATTM WITH TSRAS CONTINUING TO
FIRE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EWD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE
ONGOING...COLLIDING SFC BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...AND AN
EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE LL JET OVERNIGHT...PRECIP MENTION RETAINED IN
UPDATED EVENING PACKAGE. FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THURS HIGHLIGHTED BY
PRECIP CHANCES AND SVR POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM (48 HRS) THEN
TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...(THIS MORNING)...WILL ASCERTAIN ONGOING
CONVECTION FOR INCLUSION IN THE FIRST PD FCST. ALL INCITATIONS ARE
FOR SUSTAINED ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WITH AN
INCREASING H85 JET. (THIS AFTN AND EVENING) ALL THE INGREDIENTS
SETTING UP THIS AFTN FOR A DECENT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WX. WITH SFC
BOUNDARY ALREADY RACING NORTH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...FEEL NRN 2/3RDS
OF THE FA UNDER THE GUN. MOISTURE WILL RELOAD QUICKLY BY AFTN WITH
BETTER THAN 70 DEW POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HI RES
ETA FCSTING 0-6KM SHR IN EXCESS OF 70 KTS THIS AFTN. EVEN WITH A
MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE...PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS. WILL SEE HAIL THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE EVE HRS WITH
CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INCREASING LL JET AND WB ZEROS IN THE
9K FT AGL RANGE. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. WITH WIND AND
HAIL MAIN THREATS.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ATM WILL RELOAD TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
SITUATED FROM FAR NERN COLORADO INTO NERN NEBR. 70+ DEW POINTS POOL
ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE BY AFTN WITH 60+ KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. COULD GET REAL
INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND FEATHER THESE SWD.

.WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...UPPR TROF ARRIVES LATE ON
WEDS...FORCING SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH AND E OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF PRECIP IN FCST...HOWEVER SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
WITH STRONG LL CAA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
ERN KS/FAR ERN NEBR. ONGOING FCST ON TRACK WITH PRECIP ENDING ON
THURSDAY AM AS TROF AXIS CLEARS FA. BEYOND THURSDAY...A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN SETS UP AS DRY NWRLY FLOW COMMENCES. DRY FCST ON
TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LBF...NONE.

CLB

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-241030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A HIGH STATE OF READINESS SHOULD MAINTAINED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.  ON SUNDAY...A VIOLENT TORNADO MOVED
THROUGH THAYER COUNTY NEBRASKA PRODUCING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ONE
FATALITY.  ALSO...OVER A FOOT OF RAIN FELL PRODUCING EXTENSIVE
FLOODING AND EVACUATIONS.

THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SUNDAY MEASURED 4 AND 1/2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND THIS COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TORNADIC STORMS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS
UNCERTAIN SO A HIGH STATE OF READINESS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER HAS ENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED.  THE AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  A
HIGH STATE OF READINESS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE EXPLOSIVE WITH STORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE HOWEVER WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0635 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 AM    5 E ARNOLD                NE   1.75 IN HAIL
06/23/03   CUSTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0642 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 AM    5 NE MASON CITY           NE   0.88 IN HAIL
06/23/03   CUSTER

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