Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Key West, FL

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

CURRENTLY...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CROSSING
OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THIS HOUR
ARE SURROUNDING KEY WEST...AND BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS.
A NEW BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM CUBA...WHILE LIGHT RAIN IS
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO OUR STRAITS WATERS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN ADDITION...INFRARED 3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE VERTICAL
SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING...ABOUT 50 MILES
WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FROM ABOUT 8 TO 13 MPH. CMAN STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW WIND GUSTS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EARLIER.

THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.73 INCHES...AND A DEFINITE INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS AT 950 MB TO
SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THIS SUPPORTS CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY FROM CUBA AND THE GULF...AND HENCE EXPECT TO SEE A
CONTINUED ACTIVE NIGHT.

FORECASTS...
FORECASTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR...EXCEPT WINDS ARE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST. SO I WILL UPDATE THAT AND MAKE NECESSARY TRANSITIONAL
WORDING CHANGES.

.EYW...NONE.

L. KASPER

GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-FLZ076>078-171100-

FLORIDA KEYS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
530 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJOINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. GUSTY WINDS PAST 30 KNOTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUIRED.

FELTGEN