Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2003

WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67 DEGREES WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. WSR-88D DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORMING ALONG THE WAVE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TPC/NHC IS WATCHING THIS SYSTEM VERY
CLOSELY AND LATEST TWOAT INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING AT THIS TIME. FOR US...WHETHER IT STAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE
OR BECOMES A T.D...THE OVERALL RESULT WEATHER-WISE SHOULD BE ABOUT
THIS SAME...WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BUT NOW APPEARS THAT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD MAY BE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...WEST AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW. HOWEVER...
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET ANYWHERE ACROSS FA AND FFA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT ALL AREAS THROUGH TODAY. WILL LEAVE WIND
ADVISORY WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS THROUGH 800 AM AND MAKE ANOTHER CHECK
OF ONGOING CONDITIONS BEFORE END OF SHIFT.

FOR COASTAL WATERS...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS MOST SECTIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ATLANTIC OFF SHORE
WATERS AND ALL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR TODAY AND A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT FOR ATLANTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS.

PLEASE REFER TO ZFP AND CWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

.SJU...
.PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRZALL. SCA AMZ710...730 AND 740. WIND ADVY
ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT EASTERN 2/3 OF PR.
.VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH VIZALL. SCA AMZ710 AND 730. WIND ADVY ST
CROIX ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT.

EQUIPMENT...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

SEELEY

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-102200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND INTERACTS WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SEVERAL LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND AND WATER LIGHTNING.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF PUERTO RICO ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH OR RIVER FLOODING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERRITORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE
SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND INTERACTS WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE
ENOUGH RAINFALL TO RESULT IN URBAN AND GUT FLOODING... WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE TODAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND AND WATER LIGHTNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.