Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 PM AST THU APR 17 2003

VERY BUSY DAY WITH SOME OF THE WORST FLASH FLOODING AROUND THESE
PARTS IN A LONG TIME SOME PARTS OF SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO HAVE RECEIVED 6 TO 14 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 6 HOURS OR
LESS...WITH MANY LOCAL RIVERS FLOODED AND ROADS IMPASSABLE.
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE FA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND. IN A NUT SHELL...NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED 850-700 MB THETA E RIDGE WILL REMAINED ALIGNED
ACROSS FA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH
INTO AND ACROSS FA WHILE A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS SWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
GOOD VERTICAL MOTION...IGNITING AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
FA...SUCH AS WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. ADD TO THIS LOCAL TERRAIN AND
OTHER EFFECTS AND THIS SPELLS MORE TROUBLE. OF NOTE...IN HOUSE
DISCUSSION ON SURFACE LOW PROGGED BY GFS MODEL TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MONA CHANNEL CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH
POSSIBLE...NO REAL SIGN OF THIS YET AND MAY BE SPURIOUS CYCLONE
AGAIN. SO...HAVE NOT TOTALLY BOUGHT OFF ON THIS IDEA...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. WITH
SEVERAL WARNINGS ALSO IN EFFECT.

FOR COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY
BEYOND. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

.SJU...
.PR...FFA PRZ001>013 TIL 08Z FRIDAY.
.VI...FFA VIZ001-002 TIL 08Z FRIDAY.

EQUIPMENT: NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

SEELEY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS GONE GRAPHICAL TAKE A
LOOK AT OUR NEW GRAPHICAL FORECAST AT:
    HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/IFPS/SJU/GFE  (ALL LOWER CASE)
ADDITIONAL IMAGES ARE ON THE WAY

WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS (IN ENGLISH OR SPANISH)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT:
    HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-172200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST THU APR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ANYWHERE AND NEXT MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER ISOLATED LOCALITIES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER CAN
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

.FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS EFFECTS OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA...UNTIL SATURDAY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH. WE SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ALSO. THIS INCLUDES THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTOREMS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND CONSEQUENT FLOODING. WATERSPOUTS MAY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.