Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 AM AST THU APR 17 2003

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OUT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS WHICH
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING INTO MONA PASSAGE AT THE MOMENT AND MEETING UP WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH TOPS UP TO 45K FT. THIS SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LINE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS N PR THIS MORNING. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF PR. GETTING SOME GOOD LIFT UP THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS PR
AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

ALL INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ACTIVE AND WET
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS TODAY AND UP TO 30 KT FOR FRIDAY. GOOD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE WITH TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODELS STILL FORECASTING ACTUAL TROF AXIS TO
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR COASTAL WATERS...OUTSIDE OF ACTIVE WEATHER...FAIRLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RGZ

.SJU...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

EQUIPMENT: NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS GONE GRAPHICAL TAKE A
LOOK AT OUR NEW GRAPHICAL FORECAST AT:
    HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/IFPS/SJU/GFE  (ALL LOWER CASE)
ADDITIONAL IMAGES ARE ON THE WAY

WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS (IN ENGLISH OR SPANISH)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT:
    HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-172200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST THU APR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ANYWHERE AND NEXT MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER ISOLATED LOCALITIES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEATHER CAN
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

.FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS EFFECTS OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA...UNTIL SATURDAY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH. WE SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ALSO. THIS INCLUDES THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
AN INCH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTOREMS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND CONSEQUENT FLOODING. WATERSPOUTS MAY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.