Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
624 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

UPDATE...CLOUDS QUICKLY FILLING BACK IN...THUS WILL UPDATE ZONES
FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

...FORECAST ISSUES...

FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH SHOWERS/T-STORM CHANCES FOR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

...SHORT TERM...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVEN
WITH SUCH A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.  DEEP SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US AND INTO
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST.  AS THE LOW
HEADS NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND 300 HPA WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF PLACING KENTUCKY IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  IN ADDITION...STILL WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH A FEW VORTS PASSING THROUGH AS THEY ROTATE AROUND DEEP CYCLONE.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.  SKIES CURRENTLY ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
EXPECT TO REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  WITH THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TODAY AND CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  WITH THE MID LEVEL MOVING OUT THE
PLAINS TODAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
PLACEMENT OF THE JET...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING BEING PROGGED BY
THE MODELS AT 500 HPA WOULD LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  THIS
RESULTS IN SB CAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH DECENT PBL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES LOWER ACROSS THE EAST.  HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.  MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS SHEAR PROFILES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY.  FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TAPER
THINGS DOWN TONIGHT.  AS LOW PRESSES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
NICE WEEKEND SHAPING UP WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.  AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MODEL GUIDANCE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AND BASICALLY WENT WITH THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS.  FOR TONIGHT...TEMP GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.  MAV NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL FOR
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH THERE.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE FOR TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

...EXTENDED...

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.  DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS COMING INTO THE PICTURE BY WEDNESDAY.

...PRELIM NUMBERS (NOT OFFICIAL)...

LOZ 70/51 68/43 5531
JKL 70/52 68/45 5531

.JKL...NONE.

JARVIS

=====================================================================
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
=====================================================================
1030 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

PRECIPITATION HAS CURRENTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL CONTINUE AROUND US. NEW MESOETA NOT A
LOT OF HELP FOR THIS UPDATE...SINCE IT INITIALIZED VERY POORLY ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST (MESOETA WAS MUCH TOO MOIST).
WILL NOT RULE OUT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE NIGHT...IF LOW LEVEL
WINDS CAN TRANSPORT MORE UNSTABLE AIR BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT THINK
THAT POPS NEED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO 40 PERCENT WEST...WHERE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL
BE MINIMIZED...AND 30 PERCENT EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

HAL

---------------------------------------------------------------------
333 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SW PORTION OF FA IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH 7 PM EST.

FEATURE OF MOST IMPORTANCE DURING THE FIRST FEW PERIODS WILL BE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AS THEY BEGIN TO KICK THE LOW OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.

TROF AXIS IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ALSO FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL WORK BACK
IN...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...LATE SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE END OF THE EXTENDED BEARS WATCHING...AS STRONG MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY.

DEVIATED LITTLE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE ON TEMPS...THOUGH HIGHS RAISED
A BIT IN THE EXTENDED.

MCLANE

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
714 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS KENTUCKY TODAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JARVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
0510 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0505 PM    4 SW LONDON               KY   0.75 IN HAIL
03/20/03   LAUREL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
0525 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0515 PM    3 N PITTSBURG             KY   0.88 IN HAIL
03/20/03   LAUREL                         DIME TO NICKEL HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
0530 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0523 PM    LONDON                    KY   0.75 IN HAIL
03/20/03   LAUREL                         ON PARKWAY BETWEEN LONDON
                                          AND MANCHESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION TO COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
0551 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    11 N SANDY HOOK           KY   0.88 IN HAIL
03/20/03   ELLIOTT                  NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
0555 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0552 PM    STAFFORDSVILLE            KY   0.75 IN HAIL
03/20/03   JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
0629 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0620 PM    2 SSE INEZ                KY   0.88 IN HAIL
03/20/03   MARTIN